There’s a 98.72% Chance that at Least Two People on the HPOA/CHC Boards of Directors are Really, Really Hypocritical

About a week's supply of Bourbon whiskey
About a week’s supply of Bourbon whiskey. The post is about vodka, but we found this picture more attractive.
According to scientists the top 20% of U.S. drinkers drink an average of 6.3 drinks per day.1 At 0.6 ounces of pure alcohol per drink2 that works out to 3.78 ounces all together. At 30 ml per ounce that comes to 113.4 ml of pure alcohol. Steve Seyler’s bête noire is something called Taaka vodka which is, we assume, 80 proof, or 40% alcohol. Thus 113.4 ml is equivalent to \frac{113.4}{0.4}=283.5 ml of actual vodka.

The small bottles that everyone in the BID is so het up about are 200 ml, so we’re talking about \frac{283.5}{200}=1.42 bottles of Taaka. What’s the chance that someone on the Board of directors drinks at this rate and still has the temerity to vote in favor of policies that target homeless people for arrest for doing the same thing that they do every freaking day? It’s pretty high, friends. Details below the fold.

OK, there are about 10,000,000 people in Los Angeles County.3 There are 17 people on the Hollywood Property Owners Alliance Board of Directors.4 There seem to be 12 people on the Central Hollywood Coalition Board.5 That’s 29 people all together, not counting staff.6 The probability that at least two of them are in the top 20% is:

1 - \left ( \frac{{8000000 \choose 29}}{{10000000 \choose 29}} + \frac{{8000000 \choose 28} \times 2000000}{{10000000 \choose 29}} \right ) \approx 0.987233833656

Can you imagine being a person who drinks the equivalent of 1.42 bottles of Taaka vodka every single day of your life at the same time that you’re in charge of a gang of thugs whose whole purpose for existing is to arrest people like you just because they don’t happen to have a home? What a horribly hypocritical existence that must be.

And how lonely, too, to have to sit there in silence month after month as Steve Seyler gloats about arresting your compatriots, as Kerry Morrison talks about people like you as “a prime day-time issue,” whatever that is. You can’t say anything, though, because the peer pressure is too high. What if Steve Seyler arrests you too?

We can only imagine your pain, dear alcoholic BID Board member. We’d pity you madly, deeply… but… the chance is 98.72% that there’re at least two of you. Misery, as we’d say if we were tempted by the siren song of the cliche, loves company. Find your counterpart if you haven’t already. They will understand. Maybe you two can find some comfort amidst your sorrows. Maybe even sneak in some vodka in a plastic water bottle.7 Of course, the truth will make you free, but we realize that telling the truth is probably not a realistic goal for you right now. One day at a time…

  1. See Christopher Ingraham’s interesting work at the WaPo: Think you drink a lot? This chart will tell you. Note that his chart is organized by decile. To obtain the average for the top quintile we’ve averaged the averages for the top two deciles. Ordinarily one doesn’t average averages, but it’s OK to do so in this case.
  2. Christopher Ingraham. Measuring America’s drinking habit is tricky — here’s how to do it.
  3. See The Census Bureau’s Quick Facts Page.
  4. By their own admission there are 17 of them. See e.g. here. Apropos of nothing at all, did you know that declaration against interest is an exception to hearsay rules in U.S. courts? Fascinating, that.
  5. See here.
  6. Redoing our calculations counting staff is left as an exercise for the reader. Send your answers (don’t forget to show your work!) to contest at michaelkohlhaas dot org and we’ll enter you in a drawing for a fabulous prize if you’re correct!
  7. But, Duh! Obviously you’ve already thought of that. How else to bear the pressure?

Image of waaaay too much whiskey has been released under the GFDL and came to us via the Wikimedia Foundation.


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