Final Figures for 2015 Show that Arrest Rate Reduction Even Higher than Estimated: 42.7% Drop From 2014 Total, Which is 4.18 Standard Deviations from the 2009-2014 Mean

BID Patrol arrests per year 2007--2015
BID Patrol arrests per year 2007–2015
Last month I reported that BID Patrol arrests had dropped off precipitously between 2014 and 2015. At that time I didn’t have the final arrest total for 2015, so annualized the figure from November to 666. Yesterday I received the actual figures, and the total number of arrests turns out to be even lower than suspected. The BID Patrol arrested only 606 people in 2015, compared to 1057 in 2015 (and a running average of 1183 between 2009 and 2014.1 As I said before, it’s hard not to attribute this massive drop-off to our scrutiny.2 Note that the standard deviation for those years is 107.7, so that the absolute change of 451 arrests is 4.18 standard deviations, meaning that this result is exceedingly unlikely to be due to chance. I also really have to wonder, if they can arrest over 40% fewer people year over year,3 what were they even arresting them all for in the first place?

  1. I’m leaving 2007 and 2008 out of this calculation because the totals are extremely high relative to the years 2009 through 2014. If those numbers were included it would wrongly increase the apparent significance of the 2014/15 change.
  2. Although some people have suggested to me that it might be due to the massive law enforcement freakout over Prop 47; maybe the BID Patrol also had a hissy fit and stopped arresting people to make some kind of a point. If so I’d sure like to hear them assert that in public.
  3. In a year when everyone, the BIDs included, is bitching and moaning about massive increases in crime rates in Hollywood.

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